Monday, January 24, 2011

Picks: 4-0, +2.961 Units

Nail biter for me as Bochum broke a 0-0 game with a goal in the 88th minute. Then proceeded to score a second time. Thanks guy for showing up late!

Athletic Bilbao got things rolling early with a goal, then nothing happened for a long long time. Midway through the second half Bilbao picks up a second goal and virtually locks up the win. They'll later get their 3rd goal to take a 3-0 lead and seal the pick for the over.

Maritimo and Sporitng Lisbon had a 0-1 score at halftime. After the half Lisbon helped guarantee that I wouldn't be wrong, yet, today, by taking a 0-2 lead and soon afterward guaranteed I'd go 4/4 on my soccer picks when they took an 0-3 lead. Hooray Lisbon!

Now onto NHL picks. I take the approach that I have to outsmart the oddsmaker than actually predict the game. The reason being that oddsmakers have already doen the homework of comparing teams to each other. So I look for odds that the oddsmakers are having trouble handicapping and attack those ranges.

Underdogs perform alright when the odds open at 115/-135. So I pick St. Louis to win against Colorado. Colorado is 13-13 at home and on a 2 game losing streak. St Louis is 7-13 on the road and on a 2 game losing streak.

Normally, if the odds open 140/-160 you have a chance of coming out ahead as that range is at +3.30 Units from October to December, but when Toronto is involved I know better than to pick the Maple Leafs. Toronto is 19-28 facing a Carolina team that is 23-25. Both teams are on a 1 game losing streak. Toronto is 9-12 on the road and Carolina is 12-10 at home. Aw screw it, Toronto is alright. I pikc Toronto to win.

The Rangers are opening at 165/-185 against Washington. While my heart says not to do this, my head and science says pick New York to win. Washington may be 16-10 a home this season, but the Rangers perform well on the road and are 16-10 away from New York. Both teams are not sporting any sort of meaningful winning/losing streak.

The chance to pick Nashville to win against Calgary is tempting. But when the odds are 110/-130 you are looking at a losing proposition as that range does not produce any consistent winners. Calgary has a knack to win when it's supposed to and lose when they're the underdog.

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