I've tried picking football and basketball games against their spreads and I can say unequivocably that I suck at that. I'm not going to bruise my ego by entering that farce. Instead, I'm going to find answers on EBSCOhost Web and determine what academia says about sports picking methods.
I've had a chance to look over an article from the Southern Economic Journal titled "Market Efficiency and Profitable Wagering in the National Hockey League: Can Bettors Score on Longshots?" by Linda and Bill Woodland. In the article the Woodland's conclude that if you wanted to profitably bet on NHL games you would have to bet on Heavy Moneyline Underdogs.
I've decided to track how well Underogs have been performing in the NHL this year. I threw out the first 2 weeks of the season because as far as I understand no one can tell who is really good or bad that early int he season. Best example of this is New Jersey. A terrible team as the season had played out, but preseason they were favored a lot. I've only collected data through weeks 3-10 of the NHL, so from late October to Early December. I'll be able to enter more data later.
Underdog picks are -24.75 units since week 3. However, Heavy Underdogs, ML 180+, are +13.20 units from late October to the first week of December with only 2 negative unit weeks from the first 2 weeks of November.
I will pick a few hockey games tonight, but first, I wanna try my hand at picking Soccer.
Spanish Primera Division:
I'm taking Athletic Bilbao to win (-150) against Hercules and I'm picking the over of 2.5 (-110) goals
German 2. Bundesliga:
I'm picking Vfl Bochum to win (-135)
I'm picking the over of 2 (-155) for the game between Maritimo and Sporting Lisbon.